India Focus

S t r a t e g i c    A n a l y s i s    &    F o r e c a s t s

Politics    •    Business    •     Economy    •    Society    •     Culture    •    Diplomacy

In this section, we look at domestic factors and trends other than the Kargil war with Pakistan which are likely to play an important role in forthcoming general elections.

Key Political Trends

Absence of any wave: The current election campaign is most notable for the absence of a defining political issue or strong current in public mood, whether pro-Congress or pro-BJP. An indication of this is in the fact that so far, unlike in the previous two elections, there have been very few defections from one party to another. Even Kargil will perhaps not help the BJP much more than winning a few extra seats, and that too where the contest is close. But the absence of any wave will in the end help the BJP more than the Congress.  Why ?   Because its committed vote bank in most areas is likely to stay intact, and the party has been able to neutralize any anti-incumbency disadvantage it may have otherwise faced in UP and Maharashtra.   On the other hand, the Congress party is now trying very hard to find an election issue which will stick. It has already tried to raise the issues of political stability, corruption, secularism, Kargil and the new telecom policy, but none of these charges have resonated with the masses. The Congress party suffers from a serious credibility problem on many of these matters, and its efforts may actually rebound if it pushes too hard.

Congress is very weak in major states: Congress party’s national vote share has been declining consistently over the last 4 national elections and it has suffered electoral reverses in 17 out of the last 25 provincial elections. More significantly, Congress vote share in the crucial states of UP, Bihar, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal has dipped to historic lows, in some cases close to single digits. For example, Congress vote share in UP in 1998 elections was less than 6 percent. For Congress to make any sort of credible comeback in UP it has to climb back to at least 25 percent voteshare, an impossibility given the lack of any pro-Congress wave and the short time left between now and elections. Also, in contrast to Congress, BJP’s wins in the last elections were by a much bigger margin than its losses. Taking into account two-horse races where it either won or was a close second, BJP is a potential winner in almost 320 seats by itself. And if its allies are included, this number goes up to almost 430. Based on past voteshare alone, it is clear that Congress is much weaker than the BJP, and that it must grow at least twice as fast in popularity just to achieve parity.

Economy & opposition disunity will help BJP: The two biggest factors working to BJP’s advantage are the economy and fragmentation of anti-BJP votes. First, most economic indicators (and certainly the ones affecting common people) are doing better than in the past few years. Inflation is at 2 percent, GDP is growing by 6 percent, manufacturing sector is growing by 8 percent, and the country is expecting a record crop this years. This translates into more jobs, income and buying power for the poor in both rural and urban areas. Also, the middle class is happy because the Sensex is close to its all-time high, white collar jobs are being created again, the property market has bottomed out, and there is upward trend in investor confidence. Second, anti-BJP votes will be diffused in these elections. Given the increasingly fragmented nature of Indian politics and society, even a weak alliance partner helps in increasing voteshare. The inability, or unwillingness, of the Congress to pick up alliance partners in major states will cost it dearly, and specially in UP -- a possible Congress+BSP alliance could have matched BJP’s strength here -- which is the most crucial state of all. A win in UP is almost a prerequisite to coming to power at the centre. In contrast, the BJP has been able to pick up key alliance partners in almost all major states despite some early problems.

It may come down to Sonia v/s Vajpayee: Given the lack of any strong issue or theme, the Sonia Gandhi v/s Vajpayee contrast will probably be the deciding factor in the minds of many uncommitted voters, and this is perhaps the single largest disadvantage for the Congress. Sonia’s political inexperience, stoic demeanour, lack of fluency in the local language and the disadvantage of being a foreigner are no match for Vajpayee’s already high popularity. BJP will not attack Sonia directly, since that may appear petty, but through a subtle whisper campaign with the help of friends in the media. And by bringing in Arun Nehru and Arun Singh, both of whom were close to Rajiv Gandhi at one point, the BJP is trying to neutralize any ‘Gandhi family’ advantage that she may draw. In fact, the induction into the BJP of two of Rajiv’s most trusted friends is a clear signal by the BJP of its intention to corner Sonia both psychologically and campaign-wise.

Congress has limited post-poll maneuverability: Even if no major party/alliance gets a majority, it will be much easier for BJP than Congress to garner outside support and form a coalition government. This is because 1) Congress has steadfastly refused to share power, even as recent as during the fall of the Vajpayee regime in April, and its culture does not allow a sudden climbdown, 2) personal equations between non-BJP leaders are strained, and at a personal level many of them dislike each other much more than they do the BJP, and 3) many non-BJP and non-Congress leaders, such as Chandra Babu Naidu, Mulayam Singh, Sharad Pawar, RK Hegde and George Fernandes have already given strong statements to the press about Sonia’s foreign origin. Some have even hinted to her being a ‘threat to national security.’ In fact, for Mulayam and Pawar, defeating Sonia is more important than defeating the BJP. Given these postures and imperatives, none of these can or will ally with Congress under Sonia’s leadership, and Sonia will not allow any other Congress leader to become PM. Congress has very limited post-poll flexibility.

Our Forecast